Nintendo's next thing - What do you think it will be?

[marurun]

So I've been thinking a lot lately about Nintendo's next thing. The Switch is finally slowing a bit. It struggles to run newer games, including non-AAA titles, at reasonable frame rates, and some ports to it are really starting to suffer. I think Tears of the Kingdom may be the Switch's sendoff game. This isn't to say I think Nintendo will have a new platform for this holiday season (you have to have time for the new Zelda to simmer), but I think at this point it's highly likely Nintendo will be shifting to the next big thing by holiday 2024, barring some kind of miraculous shift in the market or their own sales. Nintendo's titles are still selling quite well, but third party sales have, by all accounts, started to wane a bit. Yes, the platform is still an indie darling for titles which don't require massive performance, but that will only carry it so far, especially with rumors Sony might be considering a new handheld of some sort and copycats targeting the Steam Deck.

So what will Nintendo's next thing look like? I'm assuming it will also be a handheld/console crossover, because if it isn't they're ceding one market completely. I don't see Nintendo going back to two platforms again. The new thing could be a lower-resolution handheld and a beefier console that play the same titles, but that makes development very difficult, and I'm not sure how likely that really is short of a docking station with DLSS or some similar technology to simply boost resolution. What I will say is that I think the next big Nintendo thing will NOT be backwards compatible. Given the amount of money Nintendo has made porting and re-releasing WiiU and the occasional 3DS title for Switch, basically from underperforming platforms to an overperforming one, the market has spoken. The Switch has a huge library and I don’t think Nintendo or third parties want the market for a new platform to be cannibalized by older titles. It may be working for Sony and Microsoft, but Nintendo tends to be an outlier. Look at where backwards compatibility got them with the WiiU and 3DS: reduced platform sales performance. Look where splitting with the past got them: outstanding Switch sales, hardware and software. I simply do not see Nintendo prioritizing backwards compatibility at this point.

So yeah, my hot-take is that you will likely need to hold onto your Switch to keep playing it's wonderful library, because my bet would be on Nintendo's next platform not running those titles.

[bmoc]

I fully expect Nintendo's next system powered by Apple silicon and Intel Arc GPUs. Bring on the Nintendo Pippin!

Seriously though, I agree that it would be madness for Nintendo to abandon the handheld market since they've have dominated it since the Gameboy. Another hybrid console is likely. I think backwards compatibility will hing on what CPU is used.

[marurun]

I fully expect Nintendo's next system powered by Apple silicon and Intel Arc GPUs. Bring on the Nintendo Pippin!

Seriously though, I agree that it would be madness for Nintendo to abandon the handheld market since they've have dominated it since the Gameboy. Another hybrid console is likely. I think backwards compatibility will hing on what CPU is used.

I would hope Nintendo would stick with Nvidia, but Nvidia has been phasing out of the mobile market. Imagination Technologies (PowerVR) had some strong mobile GPUs for a time, but Apple hired away their best people and licensed the tech and then the Chinese government bought them. Apple and Qualcomm are honestly probably the powerhouses in the space, and I don't see Nintendo turning to Qualcomm or Apple even considering licensing any of their stuff. So unless Nvidia picks the torch back up Nintendo might have to move into the AMD space ala the Steam Deck. I think Nvidia could give them something worth using, but it would have to be something they've been working on already and sort of holding back from the market (the market already doesn't really care about Nvidia in that space, anyway, though).

[Anapan]

I think that since their products have always included some gimmick, they should go the KFConsole route and release an air-fryer based gaming console. People love crispy chicken.

[opa]

Backwards compatibility would be nice but I think they'd rather sell you the same games again for $60. lol

My prediction: No BC and no video out (strictly handheld). However, they'll eventually pull a Vita TV and release a small tv box that plays the games towards the end of the console life cycle. The controller layout will be the same but with only marginally better build quality (i.e. crap). They'll release a model that's digital-only for a few dollars less and people will flock to it like flies on you-know-what. Also, I think amiibo cards and figures will still be a thing. Easy way to get people to buy on-cart/disc dlc.

...
Re-reading my post, I'm certainly not optimistic about the next console LOL

I think that since their products have always included some gimmick, they should go the KFConsole route and release an air-fryer based gaming console. People love crispy chicken.

I think Nintendo is chasing that frozen waffle crowd. It'd have to be a toaster.

[marurun]

Nintendo already has familiarity with the toaster form-factor.

I don’t see Nintendo making a dedicated handheld. Too many people enjoy playing Switch on a TV. I could see a dedicated DLSS-style graphics block in a dock, however, for post-processing visuals.

[opa]

I still think a strict handheld isn't too far off the mark with the popularity of the Switch Lite (an objectively worse console feature-wise).

[Jagosaurus]

I've watched/read some content going over how BC on the "next Switch" isn't a given. MVG put out a solid video on this:
https://youtu.be/WH03ht2fVqI

What's interesting is we're hearing the Sony handheld will be similar to the Logitech G Cloud device for Xbox (PS5 remote/LAN play & PS Now cloud)... wish they'd come out with a true Vita 2.

I can't see Nintendo shifting away from some form of physical media like Sony's handheld will reportedly do. Of all the game companies, they're most "toy company-like" to me. Now ... their current game cards are expensive to make yet are needed due the Switch small internal memory. Will be interesting to see what they do here between internal storage & media type/capacity.

In the end, I think it's a 4K dock, OLED 1080p display, and upgraded Nvidia SOC. I do expect it to be Nvidia powered again, designed without much risk taking. Their current CEO, Furukawa, reportedly is fairly conservative in his business operations.

After the WiiU naming debacle... They may not call it the Switch 2, especially if no BC.

Now ... you know they'll come out with some final OG Switch iteration too New 2DS XL look at you!

[marurun]

If they stick with Nvidia it likely will be backwards compatible. It’s a matter of whether they migrate away from Nvidia. It will come down to who can offer enough performance at the right price.

[Jagosaurus]

If they stick with Nvidia it likely will be backwards compatible. It’s a matter of whether they migrate away from Nvidia. It will come down to who can offer enough performance at the right price.

Did you check out that MVG video? He's shipped a few games on Switch as lead dev & had some solid info on BC game porting issues from Nvidia Tegra to newer Nvidia SOCs ... compared to driver based on PC graphics cards side. Pretty interesting to hear the technical nuances and the challenges they could face.

I hope it's BC personally ... my kiddos have a nice little Switch library going

Also... Mario Kart 8 about to be a decade old. Still going strong