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Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:46 pm
by jjgames
What do you think of this idea: A rarity score that is based upon market data like the price of the game, the number of listings during the past year, the number of copies produced, etc.

Most rarity scales now seem to be someone's opinion about how rare a game is but they are subjective. This rarity scale would be based on an equation that everyone would know so people can see why a game is rare or why it isn't. This would make the rarity rankings much more transparent.

A very simple example: A game sells for $100 on average, there have been 20 sales in the past year, there is 1 listing available right now, and 50,000 copies of the game were produced. The equation would then pop out the rarity score of 4.

The tricky part would be getting the equation right so it gives good results but what does everyone think of the idea in general? Do you think it would be a good idea?
Lastly, what type of scale do you like best: 1-10, 1-100, 1-5 stars, etc

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:56 pm
by final fight cd
price definitely should not be involved in the equation

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:52 pm
by 8bit
final fight cd wrote:price definitely should not be involved in the equation


I completely agree.

I like the idea behind the scale but unfortunately publishers do not release sales figures enough to really work.

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:01 pm
by noiseredux
final fight cd wrote:price definitely should not be involved in the equation


price doesn't play into the equation though. Rarity has to do with how common something is. Not how much it costs.

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:12 pm
by yomomma1
It would have to be by the number sold or listed, not by the number produced. This is because that those numbers just wouldn't be found. I know you don't want to be subjective, however if you include price you would also have to include "play value" a game with low play value isn't sought after because it isn't good or popular. A game with high play value may be popular, or be sought after because it is the only legitimate way to play it. Ie, Earthbound has a low rarity level, but a very high "play value" thus the high price. Games like the jungle book for the nes has low play value, high rarity. Contra for nes has a very low rarity level, but a mid high play value, thus the 15 dollar or so price.

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:21 pm
by dedalusdedalus
A high price can imply rarity. This is just basic Supply and Demand: all other things equal, price increases as supply decreases.

Of course, the operative word here is that a high price "can" imply rarity, because there's also the issue of demand. FFVII is not "rare" by any stretch of the imagination but it commands a high price because there's so much demand for it. Conversely, I think "Ring of Red" had a pretty low print run, but there's not much demand for it, so it hovers around $10.

That said though: my opinion is that price is not a good metric to use, because experience tells me that the prices of the more expensive games tend to be driven more by demand than actual rarity. I think if you throw price into the mix, it will tend to distort your measurement of rarity more often than it'll add to the accuracy of it.

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:30 pm
by noiseredux
I just don't think "rarity" as jj would be defining it has anything to do with price. He already runs a price guide, so I think all he's talking about is "how likely are you to find a copy".

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:34 pm
by yomomma1
noiseredux wrote:I just don't think "rarity" as jj would be defining it has anything to do with price. He already runs a price guide, so I think all he's talking about is "how likely are you to find a copy".


Yea, I understand that. But You couldn't call it rarity. Perhaps availability or something similar would fit it better.

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:36 pm
by noiseredux
yomomma1 wrote:
Yea, I understand that. But You couldn't call it rarity. Perhaps availability or something similar would fit it better.


what do you mean? The amount of them available dictates either how common (or inversely, how rare) they are. Right?

Re: Rarity Score Based Upon Market Data

Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:37 pm
by Opa Opa
For me: rarity = availability.

Games like Nintendo World Championships are rare, but games like Earthbound, and other so-called "rare" games that generally have a large production number, are not.

As for price... The price of a game is what people are willing to pay (rare or not). I wouldn't give you $2 for Earthbound because I don't like the game, however, someone who likes the game would be willing to pay $100+. Anyways...

Whatever the consumer is willing to pay ultimately defines the price of anything. That's pretty much all I have to say...